Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1256 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Valid Jun 12/1200 UTC thru Jun 16/0000 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 12Z NAM/GFS evaluation...with preliminary preferences ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Upper trough and related surface cyclone tracking from the Mississippi valley/Great Lakes today/tonight, to the East Coast Thursday morning... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model compromise Confidence: Slightly above average Generally similar agreement was noted in the latest model guidance (both deterministic and ensemble), with the 12Z GFS on the faster side of the deterministic envelope. The GFS however, was not fast enough to exclude it when used as part of a general model blend. ...Shortwave moving across the Pacific Northwest early Wednesday with related cold front emerging into the northern Plains Thursday night... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 12Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF, 00Z UKMET blend Confidence: Average Quasi-zonal flow across the eastern Pacific at the start of the period supports a quicker movement of a shortwave trough and related cold front through the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Ensemble trends have supported this quicker movement, but by 00Z/16, the 12Z NAM is fastest of the deterministic guidance with the 00Z CMC slowest. Prefer the middle ground for now given better ensemble support for the middle road approach. ...Closed low likely setting up over the Pacific Northwest Friday night... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: non 00Z CMC blend Confidence: Average Good agreement from the deterministic/ensemble guidance for a non-00Z CMC blend, with the 00Z CMC located farther north with a closed low out West by 00Z/16 relative to the remaining models. ...Hurricane Bud... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 12Z NAM, 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF blend Confidence: See 15Z NHC advisory The 12Z NAM, 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF are closest to the 15Z NHC advisory regarding the track of Hurricane Bud as it tracks northward and weakens into the Gulf of California/Sea of Cortez. The 00Z UKMET was noted to be significantly faster while the 00Z CMC slower than the 15Z NHC advisory. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Otto