Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1249 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Valid Jun 14/0000 UTC thru Jun 17/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS evaluation...with preliminary preferences
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall model diagnostic analysis for the CONUS...

Preference: General blend; greatest weight on 14/00Z GFS; 13/12Z
ECMWF
Confidence: Average

The numerical guidance continues to show a shift towards an upper
flow pattern with increasingly strong synoptic forcing.  Over the
Northeast U.S....there should be a trough.  Along the West, an
upper-level low digging down the west coast will help amplify a
trough in the Western U.S. and a broad mid-level ridge/closed
anti-cyclone gradually shifting from the Southern Plains into the
Mid Mississippi River Valley.

The latest model guidance shows decent agreement on all of these
larger scale features, but timing differences continued to be
noted with respect to the trough exiting the Northeast U.S.. 
These differences were pretty small but they translated into some
differences in latitude differences with the associated cold front
into the Southeast.

The small scale spread noted in the latest deterministic/ensemble
guidance suggests a general model blend can be used here.
Elsewhere, a blend of the 14/00Z GFS and 13/12Z ECMWF shows good
agreement to the ensemble means and is well supported in the past
few cycles of the GFS and ECMWF.

Elsewhere, a general blend of the 14/00Z GFS and 13/12Z ECMWF had
the support of their respective ensemble means both with the most
recent run and several previous runs.


...Tropical Storm Bud / Remnant circulation...

See NHC for official forecasts for Bud.
Closest Model Proxy: 14/00Z NAM and 13/12Z ECMWF blend

The 03Z NHC advisory on Bud continued have good support from the
14/00Z NAM/GFS with the 13/12Z ECMWF/UKMET still being a bit to
the west of the NCEP models and NHC track.  The biggest change in
the numerical guidance was the shift by the 14/00Z GFS to take the
850 mb relative vort center into northern Old Mexico and
dissipating it in the complex terrain more quickly.

For official forecast updates on Hurricane Bud, please refer to
the National Hurricane Center forecasts.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Bann