Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Valid Jun 14/0000 UTC thru Jun 17/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z NAM/GFS evaluation...with final preferences ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Overall model diagnostic analysis for the CONUS... Preference: General blend; greatest weight on 14/00Z GFS/ECMWF Confidence: Average ...0645Z Update... The 14/00Z suite of non-U.S. models showed some subtle run to run differences but overall each model tended to be in pretty good agreement with their previous runs and with their respective ensemble means. There was little reason to stray from the previous preference for a GFS/ECMWF blend to address minor timing or position differences. ...0445Z Issuance... The numerical guidance continues to show a shift towards an upper flow pattern with increasingly strong synoptic forcing. Over the Northeast U.S....there should be a trough. Along the West, an upper-level low digging down the west coast will help amplify a trough in the Western U.S. and a broad mid-level ridge/closed anti-cyclone gradually shifting from the Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi River Valley. The latest model guidance shows decent agreement on all of these larger scale features, but timing differences continued to be noted with respect to the trough exiting the Northeast U.S.. These differences were pretty small but they translated into some differences in latitude differences with the associated cold front into the Southeast. The small scale spread noted in the latest deterministic/ensemble guidance suggests a general model blend can be used here. Elsewhere, a blend of the 14/00Z GFS and 13/12Z ECMWF shows good agreement to the ensemble means and is well supported in the past few cycles of the GFS and ECMWF. Elsewhere, a general blend of the 14/00Z GFS and 13/12Z ECMWF had the support of their respective ensemble means both with the most recent run and several previous runs. ...Tropical Storm Bud / Remnant circulation... See NHC for official forecasts for Bud. Closest Model Proxy: 14/00Z NAM/UKMET/ECMWF blend The 03Z NHC advisory on Bud continued have good support from the 14/00Z NAM/GFS/UKMET early. While the ECMWF inched eastward with its track, it was still towards the west of the other guidance and the NHC track as the system makes its way across northwest Mexico. For official forecast updates on Hurricane Bud, please refer to the National Hurricane Center forecasts. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Bann