Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 251 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Valid Jun 14/1200 UTC thru Jun 18/0000 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 12Z Model evaluation...with final preferences ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Overall model diagnostic analysis for the CONUS... Preference: 12z GFS and ECMWF blend Confidence: Slightly Above Average 19Z Update: No change from our previous preference. The 12z ECWMF is pretty similar to its old run, and thus a blend of the 12z GFS and ECMWF should still suffice. In general the other models (nam/cmc/ukmet) are clustered even closer to the ECMWF/GFS now. Although would still not prefer the weaker CMC with the remnants of Bud...and not prefer the 12z NAM with the low in the northwest Gulf. ...Previous Discussion... Overall models are in good agreement on the large scale over the next several days. A trough and eventual closed low will move into the northwest, with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Bud moving north, ahead of this trough, into the southwest. Anomalous moisture associated with Bud streaming along/ahead of the trough will also result in a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat over portions of the central and west. As mentioned above, models are pretty close on the big scheme of things with this pattern over the central and west. Although would say that the GFS and ECMWF have generally been the most consistent and in the best agreement, thus will continue to prefer a blend of these solutions. The 12z NAM handles the remnants of Bud and additional energy within the southwest trough differently than the consensus, and while not impossible, seems less likely at this point. The 0z UKMET is quicker moving the southwest trough east, and is also less preferred at this point...and the 0z CMC is less pronounced with the leftover energy associated with Bud, resulting in a bit different 500 mb pattern by the weekend than suggested by the better model clustering. The other feature in play will be the mid level energy and moisture approaching the Gulf Coast by later this weekend. Will again lean against the NAM and CMC with this feature...as both depict stronger energy and actually develop a more defined surface low. There is generally little support for a low amongst the other deterministic models and the latest GEFS/ECMWF ensemble. Thus it seems more likely we see just an increase in mid level energy and moisture...although even this scenario would bring a heavy rainfall threat into the Gulf Coast region. Would again prefer to take a GFS/ECMWF compromise for this area through the weekend. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Chenard