Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1245 AM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Valid Jun 15/0000 UTC thru Jun 18/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model evaluation...with preliminary preferences
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...Overall model diagnostic analysis for the CONUS...

Preference: 15/00Z GFS and 14/12Z ECMWF blend
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

...Previous Discussion...

Overall models are in good agreement on the large scale over the
next several days. A trough and eventual closed low will move into
the northwest, with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Bud and
associated moisture plume making its way into the southwestern
states ahead of this trough. 

As mentioned above, models are pretty close on the big scheme of
things with this pattern over the central and west. As has been
the case over the past few runs, the GFS and ECMWF have generally
been the most consistent and in the best agreement and will
continue to be the preferred blend.

The 14/12Z ECMWF and 15/00Z GFS remained close to the NHC forecast
track for Bud into early Saturday with dissipation occurring as
Bud interacts with the complex terrain in northern Mexico.  For
official forecasts and updates on Hurricane Bud, please refer to
the National Hurricane Center forecasts. 

Even though Bud's surface circulation does not make it north of
the international border, a plume of moisture and some mid level
energy should make it into the southwest U.S. over the weekend. 
The 15/00Z NAM continued to handle some additional mid level
energy differently than the model consensus with the UKMET still
on the fast/east side of the guidance and the 14/12Z Canadian less
pronounced with its energy.  Will continue to lean towards a
non-NAM compromise here although the CMC would be given less
consideration than other remaining models. 

The other feature in play will be the mid level energy and
moisture approaching the Gulf Coast by later this weekend. Will
continue to lean against the NAM and CMC with this feature...as
both depict stronger energy and actually develop a more defined
surface low. These models had little support from the suite of
deterministic models and their respective ensembles.

Heavy rainfall will be possible from the remnants of Bud and the
mid level energy approaching the Gulf Coast over the weekend.
Refer to WPC QPF and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for more details.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Bann