Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Valid Jun 16/0000 UTC thru Jun 19/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model evaluation of all guidance...with final preferences
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...Overall model diagnostic analysis for the CONUS...

The 00Z suite of NCEP model guidance was in pretty good agreement
with their previous runs across North America.  In addition,
overall there was pretty good clustering with models from other
centers.  The only real exception looked to be in areas where
mesoscale forcing was a major focus.


Preliminary preference: A blend of the 16/00Z ECMWF/GFS with some
inclusion of the 16/00Z UKMET
Forecast confidence: Above average outside of areas of mesoscale
focus

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...Mositure and Midlevel energy moving north from Mexico...
...Disturbance lifting out of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico...

On the large-scale, differences are minimal through at least Day 2
given fairly well clustered forecast solutions.  In this region,
the 16/00Z ECMWF/GFS were pretty close to each other in terms of
track and speed of mid level energy lifting northward from Mexico.
 The NAM/CMC still remain outliers although the NAM may be in the
realm of possibilities.  One area of strong agreement was in the
fact that the moisture plume will be in place regardless of which
track the shortwave energy ultimately follws.

An area of disturbed weather should lift toward the Texas coast
the next couple of days. Think that a combination of the 16/00Z
ECMWF/GFS continue to offer the most run to run consistency and
good agreement with each other.

...Mean upper low anchored over the Central Great Basin...
...Myriad of shortwaves rising out of the Four Corners into the
north-central U.S....

Considering the eventual quasi-permanent upper low which sets up
over the western U.S., decent synoptic-scale agreement is evident
through roughly the day on Sunday. The 16/00Z NAM still appeared
to be too quick with the northern extent of the surface boundary
across the Upper Great Lakes while the latest improved remained on
the slow/westward side of the enveloope of guidance.  No
fundamental change to the previous model preferences were made in
this region.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Bann