Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 116 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 Valid Jun 18/1200 UTC thru Jun 22/0000 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 12Z initial model evaluation including preferences and forecast confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~ Overall model diagnostic analysis for the continental U.S. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model compromise through 12Z Wednesday, then ECMWF/GFS/NAM Confidence: Slightly above average The deterministic models and the ensemble means are in very good agreement on the synoptic scale level over most of the continental U.S. through 12Z Wednesday with respect to the large upper level low over the northern Rockies, the upper level ridge over the central-eastern U.S., and the shortwave trough crossing New England on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period Thursday evening, the UKMET becomes more amplified with the second trough crossing the northeast U.S. and the GFS indicating a quicker progression. The CMC is farther east with the surface low over the central plains by Thursday and also with the low off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Broad TUTT Cell and low level easterly tropical wave progressing through the Western Gulf ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Confidence: Slightly below average Model spread remains both in the deterministic guidance and internal ensemble members with respect to the development of this TUTT low and surface wave near the Texas coast. The GFS is more displaced to the south than the model consensus with the low The notable outlier here is the 00Z UKMET, which maintains a much stronger system over central Texas by Wednesday evening whilst the remaining guidance shears the system out and slowly dissipates it. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml D. Hamrick