Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Valid Jun 19/0000 UTC thru Jun 22/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...including preferences and forecast
confidence
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...Deep closed low over the West...
...Dropping down across the Mid MS Valley by Friday...
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Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS, 12Z UKMET, and 12Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly above average

The 00Z NAM is periodically a bit too deep with this system, and
the 12Z CMC by the end of the period is the fastest solution. Will
prefer a blend of the well clustered 00Z GFS, 12Z UKMET and 12Z
ECMWF.


...Series of upper troughs crossing the Northwest through Friday...
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Preference: Non-NAM blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

The 00Z NAM is out of tolerance with the global models with a
series of troughs crossing the Northwest through Friday after the
current closed low over the northern Rockies leaves the region.
Generally the NAM is on the strong side of the model suite. Will
prefer a non-NAM blend.


...Large scale troughing over the Northeast this period...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

The models are in good agreement with this system.


...Mid level low center/surface trough over Texas...
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Preference: Blend of the 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF
Confidence: Average

The 12Z UKMET is a deep outlier with this system with rather
significant convective feedback noted. A blend of the 00Z NAM, 00Z
GFS and 12Z ECMWF is preferred at this time given relatively
better model clustering.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison