Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Valid Jun 19/0000 UTC thru Jun 22/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...including preferences and confidence
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...Deep closed low over the West...
...Dropping down across the Mid MS Valley by Friday...
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Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, and 00Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly above average

The 00Z NAM is periodically a bit too deep with this system, and
the 00Z CMC by the end of the period is the fastest solution. Will
prefer a blend of the well clustered 00Z GFS, 00Z UKMET and 00Z
ECMWF.


...Series of upper troughs crossing the Northwest through Friday...
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Preference: Non-NAM blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

The 00Z NAM is out of tolerance with the global models with a
series of troughs crossing the Northwest through Friday after the
current closed low over the northern Rockies leaves the region.
Generally the NAM is on the strong side of the model suite. Will
prefer a non-NAM blend.


...Large scale troughing over the Northeast this period...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

The models are in good agreement with this system.


...Mid level low center/surface trough over Texas...
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Preference: Blend of the 00Z NAM and 00Z ECMWF
Confidence: Below average

The 00Z UKMET is again a deep outlier with this system with rather
significant convective feedback noted. However, based on the
latest model spread, the 00Z GFS is appearing to be a bit too
weak. A consensus in between will be preferred which at this time
is a blend of the 00Z NAM and 00Z ECMWF. The ECMWF may be
exhibiting a little bit of convective feedback, but it is not as
egregious as the UKMET. The 00Z CMC is rather close to the
NAM/ECMWF cluster except it has a stronger vort center breaking
away from the mid level low and lifting up across northeast TX as
compared to the remaining guidance.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison