Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 AM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Valid Jun 23/0000 UTC thru Jun 26/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...including preferences and confidence 
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...Upper low crossing the OH Valley...
...Deamplifying over the Northeast...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

The models are in very good mass field agreement with this system.


...Upper trough crossing the Plains/Midwest through Saturday...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

The models are in very good mass field agreement with this system.


...Upper trough currently moving into the Northwest...
...Amplifying into a closed low over the Intermountain West...
...Ejecting out across the Plains/Midwest Monday/Tuesday...
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Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly above average

An upper level trough arriving across the Northwest will amplify
into a closed low on Saturday and drop drop down across the
Intermountain West through Sunday. On Monday and Tuesday, the
system will progressively eject out across the Central/Northern
Plains and the Upper Midwest. The guidance overall is in pretty
good agreement with some modest timing differences, although the
00Z UKMET appears to be a little too weak with its energy as it
arrives across the Plains and Upper Midwest. The 00Z GFS and 00Z
ECMWF cluster together the best, and especially with the details
of surface low pressure east of the Rockies, and so a blend of
these solutions will be preferred.


...Upper level trough affecting the Northeast by Monday...
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Preference: Blend of the 00Z UKMET and 00Z ECMWF
Confidence: Average

An upper trough will amplify across the Northeast by Monday and
then evolve into a closed low near Nova Scotia through Tuesday.
The non-NCEP models led by the ECMWF, CMC and UKMET solutions all
slowed down a bit with this cycle and are closer to the NAM and
GFS with respect to timing. However, there are some notable
differences with respect to the depth of the closed low along with
their surface reflections southeast of Nova Scotia by the end of
the period. The GFS is the weakest solution at this point,
followed by the CMC. The NAM, UKMET and ECMWF all are a bit
stronger. The NAM though does tend to be just a little slower than
the model consensus. Meanwhile, the CMC is seen as being a little
more progressive and especially with its surface wave. Based on
the latest trends and clustering, a solution toward a blend of the
UKMET and ECMWF will be preferred as the GFS appears too weak.


...Upper trough crossing the Northwest Monday/Tuesday...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

An upper trough will cross the Northwest on Monday and Tuesday.
The guidance overall is in good agreement with their mass fields,
with only very modest timing/depth differences, so a general model
blend will be preferred.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison