Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Valid Jun 26/0000 UTC thru Jun 29/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...including model preferences and confidence
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...Western U.S. to the High Plains...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

Multiple troughs will impact the Western U.S. over the next few
days, but the guidance is in good agreement with these systems, so
a general model blend will be preferred.


...Eastern U.S...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

The latest guidance takes the closed low and associated upper
trough over the Midwest gradually east and toward the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast by Thursday. The energy will begin to lift out on
Friday as a strengthening upper level ridge begins to set up over
the OH/TN Valleys and the Gulf Coast states. The 00Z ECMWF trended
a bit weaker from its previous run and is now pretty close to the
model consensus. A general model blend will be preferred.


...Possible low pressure offshore the East Coast by Wednesday...
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Preference: 00Z GFS
Confidence: Average

The 00Z ECMWF and 00Z CMC again support the idea of a more
developed area of low pressure by early Wednesday near coastal
North Carolina which will then lift northeast and offshore the
East Coast ahead of the aforementioned trough moving into the
Eastern U.S. The 00Z NAM/GFS and 00Z UKMET all have relatively
weaker/flatter solutions. The weaker consensus led by the GFS will
be preferred at this time.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison