Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 301 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018 Valid Jun 28/0000 UTC thru Jul 1/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z final model evaluation...including preferences and confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Western US to the High Plains... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS mean blend Confidence: Above average Similar to the earlier runs, the 00Z NAM ends up being more amplified and more progressive with the lead short wave that tracks from Idaho into North Dakota Friday night, which results in a surface front being a bit faster over the northern plains by Saturday evening. It develops a closed upper low over Manitoba by the end of the short range forecast period whereas the other models have more of an open trough. The 00Z GFS is much faster with a lead surface low over Minnesota on Friday but appears to be in relatively good agreement elsewhere. The 00Z CMC is the slowest solution with the upper trough by early Sunday across the northern plains. The 00Z ECMWF and 00Z GEFS mean are closest to the model consensus with the mid level and surface systems, and is therefore the recommended choice for now. ...Eastern US... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Non-UKMET model blend Confidence: Above average There is good overall model agreement with the timing of the frontal boundary crossing the northeastern quadrant of the nation through Thursday afternoon, as well as the evolution of the mid level ridge that builds from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic going into the weekend. There is some spread in the placement of the mid level ridge by Saturday evening, with the 00Z UKMET indicating the greatest degree of rising mid level heights, similar to its 12Z run. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Hamrick