Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1247 PM EDT Wed Jul 04 2018 Valid Jul 04/1200 UTC thru Jul 08/0000 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 12Z NAM/GFS Evaluation with preliminary model preferences ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS initialization issues do not seem to degrade their short range forecasts. Convective low retrograding through TX Second system retrograding towards southern TX Friday Upper low crossing FL Friday/Saturday ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The guidance shows good agreement here, so prefer a compromise of the available guidance (00z Canadian, 00z UKMET, 00z ECMWF, 12z NAM, and 12z GFS) to deal with any lingering uncertainty on the mass fields with above average confidence. See our Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks/Discussions for more details in this area. Upper troughs near the Pacific Northwest & eventually Northeast ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The guidance shows good agreement with the evolution of these upper features and their related cold front progression. A compromise of the 00z Canadian, 00z UKMET, 00z ECMWF, 12z NAM, and 12z GFS is preferred with above average confidence. Possible convective low offshore the Carolinas ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Close to 00z ECMWF; confidence below average The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this system for development. The 00z UKMET was the slowest to recurve the feature (keeping it close to the col in the flow pattern) while the 00z Canadian was the quickest. An intermediate solution like the 00z ECMWF is preferred with below average confidence due to the considerable ensemble spread with its corresponding surface low position. See NHC outlooks for more information regarding possible tropical cyclone formation. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Roth