Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 103 AM EDT Thu Jul 05 2018 Valid Jul 05/0000 UTC thru Jul 08/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z NAM/GFS evaluation along with preliminary preferences ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS initialization issues do not seem to degrade their short range forecasts. ...Low-mid level wave retrograding through TX and across northern Mexico through Friday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model compromise Confidence: Above average The model show similarly with this system with any model trends converging toward a similar solution.. ...Second system retrograding towards southern TX Friday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model compromise Confidence: Average The models show similarly with this system. ...Upper low crossing FL Friday/Saturday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: non 12Z CMC blend Confidence: Average The 12Z CMC differs here with an upper low displaced to the south and west of the remaining model consensus. Given a lack of support for the 12Z CMC, a non 12Z CMC blend is recommended. ...Upper troughs crossing the Great Lakes and Northeast through Friday night... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model compromise Confidence: Average The models show similarly with this system. ...Upper trough off of the northwestern U.S., moving inland through the weekend with accompanying cold front reaching the northern Plains by Sunday morning... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model compromise Confidence: Average The models show similarly with this system. ...Possible low offshore of the East Coast Friday and Saturday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF blend Confidence: Below Average The strength in the 12Z UKMET is the greatest of the deterministic guidance and ensemble scatter low plot support for a defined low is weak and broad into the weekend. While the 12Z UKMET's position matches reasonably well with the 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF, the idea of a weaker system is more preferred at this time. NHC highlights this system with a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days, please refer to products issued by the NHC for the most up to date status regarding tropical development here. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Otto