Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 308 AM EDT Thu Jul 05 2018 Valid Jul 05/0000 UTC thru Jul 08/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z model evaluation along with final preferences ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS initialization issues do not seem to degrade their short range forecasts. ...Low-mid level wave retrograding through TX and across northern Mexico through Friday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model compromise Confidence: Above average The model show similarly with this system with any model trends converging toward a similar solution.. ...Second system retrograding towards southern TX Friday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model compromise Confidence: Average The models show similarly with this system. ...Upper low crossing FL Friday/Saturday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model compromise Confidence: Average The 00Z CMC changed from its 12Z cycle but it still has some minor timing/placement differences by Sunday morning across the central Gulf of Mexico regarding the upper low. However, given the CMC has trended much closer to the remaining model consensus, a general model blend appears reasonable for this system. ...Upper troughs crossing the Great Lakes and Northeast through Friday night... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model compromise Confidence: Average The models show similarly with this system. ...Upper trough off of the northwestern U.S., moving inland through the weekend with accompanying cold front reaching the northern Plains by Sunday morning... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model compromise Confidence: Average The models show similarly with this system. ...Possible low offshore of the East Coast Friday and Saturday... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: non 12Z NAM blend Confidence: Below Average While having weakened from its 12Z cycle, the strength in the 00Z UKMET is still the greatest of the deterministic guidance by 12Z Sunday and ensemble scatter low plot support for a defined low is weak and broad into the weekend. The 00Z CMC is also slightly more defined but its position along with the 00Z UKMET/GFS/ECMWF match reasonably well with one another. The idea of a somewhat weaker system is more preferred at this time but the 00Z NAM is significantly weaker and displaced south of all of the remaining guidance. The 06Z NHC Tropical Weather Outlook highlights this system with a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days, down from 50% from the previous issuance. Please refer to products issued by the NHC for the most up to date status regarding tropical development here. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Otto