Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

Valid Jul 07/0000 UTC thru Jul 10/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...with final preferences/confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...

Overall Preference: non 00Z NAM blend
General Confidence: Slightly Above Average

A large ridge will dominate over the center of the country with
the passage of a longwave trough axis across the top and into the
Great Lakes/Northeast by Tuesday morning. An accompanying cold
front will impact the northern tier of the U.S. into early next
week with the better model agreement seen in the 00Z GFS, 00Z
ECMWF and 00Z UKMET for mass fields. The 00Z CMC looks reasonable
as well but the 00Z NAM is a bit more aggressive with height falls
across Ontario which results in a farther south position of the
cold front into the Midwest/Plains on Monday compared to the
remaining consensus.

Across the Northwest by Monday, an upper trough begins to near the
coastline, with good agreement in the latest model suite including
the 00Z CMC which adjusted toward the remaining model consensus.


...Tropical Depression Three off the East Coast...

Preference: 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF blend nearest to 03Z NHC advisory
Confidence: See NHC products

While no model is in total agreement with the 03Z NHC advisory, a
general blend between the 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF is closest in position
and strength to the 03Z NHC advisory for T.D. Three through Monday
morning. The 00Z NAM is stronger than the GFS, with the NHC
forecasting a 50-65 kt tropical cyclone by 12Z/10, with the NAM
showing over 70 kt at this time. The 00Z ECMWF position is east of
the NHC track and remains weakest of the 3 preferred models, but
it did trend stronger than its 12Z cycle. The 00Z UKMET/CMC are
north and/or east of the NHC track starting early Monday morning.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto