Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

Valid Jul 08/0000 UTC thru Jul 11/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...with final preferences/confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...

Overall Preference: non 12/00Z CMC blend
(overall preference does not include T.D. Three discussed below)
General Confidence: Slightly above average

With mid-upper level ridging dominating much of the lower 48, the
jet stream and associated synoptic scale forcing are situated
along the U.S./Canadian border through mid-week. Two
troughs/surface-cold fronts will impact the weather, one in the
Northeast and the other across the Pacific Northwest.

Cold front number one will track from the north-central U.S. on
Sunday to the Northeast on Tuesday. The models show good agreement
with this system and a general model compromise will suffice.

Cold front number two (and associated upper trough) will reach the
Northwest U.S. by Tuesday morning and into the northern Plains by
Wednesday morning. Here, the 12Z/00Z CMC is weaker with the core
of the mid-level low and a bit slower. There is good support for a
non-CMC blend.

Other systems farther south will be more driven by mesoscale
features beyond the scope of this discussion.


...Tropical Depression Three off the East Coast...

Preference: 12Z ECMWF and 00Z CMC closest to 03Z NHC Advisory
Confidence: See NHC products for more information

The 12Z ECMWF and 00Z CMC are nearest to the NHC 03Z advisory
track through Wednesday morning but the 12Z ECMWF is significantly
weaker than the hurricane strength cyclone by 00Z/11 as forecast
in the NHC advisory. The 00Z ECMWF trended stronger but slower and
west of the NHC advisory. The remaining guidance, including the
00Z NAM, 00Z GFS and 00Z UKMET show a stronger system more in line
with the NHC advisory intensity but do not match the track. Please
see the latest NHC products for the official forecast and an
evaluation of forecast confidence.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto