Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

Valid Jul 08/1200 UTC thru Jul 12/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...

Overall Preference: General model blend
General Confidence: Slightly above average

---19Z UPDATE---
No change to the preliminary preference as agreement is fairly
good overall on the mass fields across the CONUS.

---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---
Model agreement is fairly good with the synoptic features and QPF
patterns and distribution. Therefore, a general model blend was
the preference for the WPC QPF today across the CONUS, perhaps
with a slight lean toward wetter solutions like the GFS for the
monsoon in the Southwest U.S. and along the Gulf Coast. The ECMWF
is drier, which is a typical bias.


...Tropical Storm Chris off the East Coast...

---19Z UPDATE---
No change to the preliminary discussion. The GFS continues to keep
most of the rainfall offshore, but the NAM, UKMET, and ECMWF do
bring rainfall into far eastern North Carolina. The preference is
to continue to include rainfall onshore.

---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---
Most of the precipitation associated with Chris is expected to
remain offshore, although some may affect far eastern North
Carolina. WPC QPF leaned toward bringing some of the QPF ashore.
For the latest forecast and uncertainty information, please refer
to the official NHC forecast.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers