Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Valid Jul 09/0000 UTC thru Jul 12/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS evaluation...with preliminary preferences/confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...

Overall Preference: General model blend
General Confidence: Slightly above average

There is generally good agreement with the mass fields across the
lower 48 with minor timing/placement differences which is typical,
certainly by day 3. A general model blend is preferred overall,
with perhaps the best middle ground depicted between a blend of
the 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF.


...Tropical Storm Chris off the East Coast...

Preference: 00Z NAM/GFS closest to the 03Z NHC advisory
Confidence: See NHC products for more details

The 00Z NAM/GFS are closest to the 03Z NHC advisory for the track
of T.S. Chris through Thursday, but the NAM/GFS begin to outrun
the timing of the NHC forecast late Wednesday into Thursday. The
12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC lag the timing of the NHC advisory, but the
ECMWF is the next closest to the 00Z NAM/GFS into mid-week. For
the latest forecast and uncertainty information, please refer to
the official NHC forecast.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto