Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Valid Jul 09/0000 UTC thru Jul 12/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...with final preferences/confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...

Overall Preference: General model blend
General Confidence: Slightly above average

There is generally good agreement with the mass fields across the
lower 48 with minor timing/placement differences which is typical,
certainly by day 3. A general model blend is preferred overall,
with perhaps the best middle ground depicted between a blend of
the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. No significant changes were noted in
the 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC relative to their 12Z cycles across the
lower 48.


...Tropical Storm Chris off the East Coast...

Preference: 00Z NAM/GFS closest to the 03Z NHC advisory through
12Z/11
            00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC blend 12Z/11 - 12Z/12
Confidence: See NHC products for more details

The 00Z NAM/GFS are closest to the 03Z NHC advisory for the track
of T.S. Chris through Wednesday morning at which point the NAM/GFS
begin to outrun the timing of the NHC forecast late Wednesday into
Thursday, more so from the NAM. The 00Z ECMWF/CMC initially lag
the timing of the NHC advisory but both models catch up by
Thursday morning, while the 00Z UKMET is the slowest with the
timing into mid-week. For the latest forecast and uncertainty
information, please refer to the official NHC forecast.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto