Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1238 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Valid Jul 09/1200 UTC thru Jul 13/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...

Overall Preference: 12Z GFS; 00Z ECMWF; 00Z UKMET (lean GFS/ECMWF)
General Confidence: Slightly above average

Model mass fields continued to show good similarity, with only
minor differences noted across most of the CONUS. WPC QPF,
therefore, went in the direction of a blended approach. However,
preference was given to the 12Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF, and 00Z UKMET
given their better agreement, and greater detail differences
related to some areas of convection from the 12Z NAM and 00Z CMC.
The GFS and ECMWF were weighted highest in the blend overall.


...Tropical Storm Chris off the East Coast...

Please see the latest NHC products for the official forecast,
reasoning, and model track and intensity preferences for Tropical
Storm Chris.

The most noteworthy split between the models is that the NCEP
models (12Z GFS and NAM) show Chris moving off to the northeast
faster, while the non-NCEP models (00Z CMC, UKMET, ECMWF) are
slower. This split exists in the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles,
although the timing trends are moderated somewhat from the
deterministic runs. The 15Z NHC forecast generally was in the
middle of these scenarios.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers