Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1255 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Valid Jul 10/0000 UTC thru Jul 13/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS evaluation...with preliminary preferences/confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...

Overall Preference: 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS; 12Z ECMWF blend
General Confidence: Slightly above average

A cold front in the eastern U.S. shows some minor timing
differences among the deterministic guidance, with the best
agreement for a 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS; 12Z ECMWF blend through Friday
morning. Across the Northeast, some detail differences exist with
the base of a longwave 500 mb trough, but the 12Z UKMET is
significant farther south with the 588 dam contour at 500 mb,
showing toward the edge of the ensemble guidance.

Out West, the 12Z UKMET again differs from the consensus with the
tail end of a stalled front in the Great Plains for Thursday into
Friday, with the 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS; 12Z ECMWF showing better
agreement. These 3 models also agree best with the track of a
mid-level vorticity max around the ridge into Colorado on
Wednesday into Thursday whereas the 12Z CMC/UKMET show some
differences aloft and at the surface.


...Tropical Storm Chris off the East Coast...

Preference: Blend of 00Z NAM/GFS with 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC closest
to 03Z NHC advisory

Please see the latest NHC products for the official forecast,
reasoning, and model track and intensity preferences for Tropical
Storm Chris.

The 03Z NHC advisory splits the difference between the
faster/agreeable 00Z NAM/GFS and slower/agreeable 12Z
ECMWF/UKMET/CMC. A blend of these two camps seems most favorable
to the NHC advisory track.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto