Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Valid Jul 10/0000 UTC thru Jul 13/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...with final preferences/confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...

Overall Preference: non 00Z UKMET blend
General Confidence: Slightly above average

A cold front in the eastern U.S. shows some minor timing
differences among the deterministic guidance, with the 00Z UKMET
trending closer to the previously observed consensus through
Friday morning at the surface and at 500 mb. All models show
within the middle of the latest ensemble clustering at 500 mb, but
detail differences exist with weak surface low placement along the
coast early Friday.

Out West, the 00Z UKMET continues to differ from the consensus
with the tail end of a stalled front in the Great Plains for
Thursday into Friday, with the 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC showing
better agreement. The models converged with the track of a
mid-level vorticity max around the ridge into Colorado on
Wednesday into Thursday with a general model compromise preferred
with this portion of the forecast.


...Tropical Storm Chris off the East Coast...

Preference: Blend of 00Z ECMWF/CMC is closest to 03Z NHC advisory

Please see the latest NHC products for the official forecast,
reasoning, and model track and intensity preferences for Tropical
Storm Chris.

All of the 00Z guidance shows good agreement on the track of Chris
which agrees with the 03Z NHC advisory through about 12Z/11.
Afterward, the 00Z NAM/GFS/UKMET begin to speed up relative to the
NHC track, but the 00Z ECMWF/CMC are very close to the NHC timing
through Thursday. It is worth noting that the 00Z CMC is weakest
regarding intensity of the deterministic guidance.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto