Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
103 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

Valid Jul 11/0000 UTC thru Jul 14/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS evaluation including preliminary preference/confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...

Overall Preference: 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF blend
General Confidence: Slightly above average

In the wake of Hurricane Chris moving northward through the
western Atlantic, a cold front will settle into the southeastern
U.S. with perhaps a weak surface wave or two along the boundary.
There is poor agreement in the details of the weak wave but
overall the model show good agreement.

A second front, currently moving through North Dakota, is expected
to continue eastward over the next couple of days with the tail
end aligning west-east across the Midwest and Plains. The 12Z
UKMET is north with this boundary for Friday and Saturday relative
to the remaining guidance and the 12Z UKMET also has a larger
mid-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley.

A third cold front should enter Montana ahead of an upper trough
late Friday. Only the 12Z CMC deviates from the ensemble means and
the remaining deterministic consensus with a slower reflection of
the mid-level wave, translating into a slower cold front in the
12Z CMC.


...Hurricane Chris off the East Coast...

Preference: 00Z NAM/GFS blend is closest to 03Z NHC advisory

Please see the latest NHC products for the official forecast,
reasoning, and model track and intensity preferences for Hurricane
Chris.

The latest deterministic models show similar tracks for Hurricane
Chris, but the 00Z NAM/GFS are closer to the timing of the
official NHC forecast through at least Thursday, compared to the
slower 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC. The 12Z CMC deviates the most from the
official NHC track with a much slower timing. Beyond Thursday,
Chris is expected to transition into an extratropical cyclone
while tracking northeastward through the open northern Atlantic
Ocean.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto