Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1226 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Valid Jul 15/1200 UTC thru Jul 19/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...

Overall Preference: Blend of the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF
General Confidence: Above average

The pattern over the CONUS will transition from one that initially
reflects a fair amount of ridging aloft and weak flow across the
southern half of the nation, to one that will include shortwave
troughing traversing the Northwest U.S. and a somewhat larger and
deeper trough that drops across the Great Lakes and Northeast
through the early part of the week ahead. Meanwhile, there will be
a notable strengthening of the subtropical ridge across the
Southwest U.S. going through the middle of the week. The 00Z CMC
tended to be the one model that was perhaps a bit too strong with
the shortwave crossing the Northwest and the northern Plains
through the period, and also with the longer wave trough impacting
the Northeast by Wednesday. The remaining guidance including the
12Z NAM/GFS and 00Z UKMET/ECMWF solutions were reasonably well
clustered across the CONUS with the larger scale features. Will
prefer a solution weighted toward a GFS/ECMWF blend for the mass
fields.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison