Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Valid Jul 15/1200 UTC thru Jul 19/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...

Overall Preference: General model blend...weighted toward the
GFS/ECMWF
General Confidence: Above average

The pattern over the CONUS will transition from one that initially
reflects a fair amount of ridging aloft and weak flow across the
southern half of the nation, to one that will include shortwave
troughing traversing the Northwest U.S. and a somewhat larger and
deeper trough that drops across the Great Lakes and Northeast
through the early part of the week ahead. Meanwhile, there will be
a notable strengthening of the subtropical ridge across the
Southwest U.S. going through the middle of the week. The 12Z CMC
tended to be the one model that was perhaps a bit too strong with
the longer wave trough impacting the Northeast by Wednesday, but
it did trend a tad weaker with this cycle. The remaining guidance
including the 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF solutions were reasonably
well clustered across the CONUS with the larger scale features.
Will prefer a general model blend therefore weighted toward the
GFS/ECMWF guidance.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison