Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Valid Jul 16/0000 UTC thru Jul 19/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preliminary Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Model Analysis for the CONUS...

Overall Preference: Non-NAM blend; weighted toward ECMWF
General Confidence: Slightly above average

Over the next few days, the ridge that has been controlling the
weather pattern over the CONUS should become increasingly
suppressed to the south, and confined more to the Southwest.
Stronger westerly flow will build into the northern tier of states
with several shortwaves and a trough expanding along the East
Coast. Overall, models are in fairly good agreement with most of
the features of interest. The 00Z NAM was excluded from the
preference for convective feedback issues from an MCS developing
in the central Plains on Tuesday, and differences in trough
placement over the eastern half of the CONUS. The global models
show good similarity, with the exception of the 00Z GFS surface
low near Minnesota by Wednesday Night (much stronger and further
east from the other models, including the 18Z GEFS Mean).
Therefore, a global model blend is preferred, with the greatest
weight toward the 12Z ECMWF, and less weight on the GFS in the
Midwest on Wednesday and Wednesday Night. As is typical for the
summer months, a considerable amount of the QPF uncertainty is
related to the convective nature of the rain.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers