Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1206 PM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Valid Jul 23/1200 UTC thru Jul 27/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

The models are in good agreement in maintaining a north/south
oriented upper trough across the Eastern U.S. through Wednesday,
but then favor this energy weakening and lifting out by Thursday
as a stronger upper trough and associated cold front digs down
from southern Canada and across the Great Lakes region. The 00Z
CMC may occasionally be just a tad on the weak side of the
guidance with the height falls dropping southeast from Canada, but
the guidance is otherwise in good agreement with the timing and
depth of the next trough. Meanwhile, a strong subtropical ridge
will be building west across the Southwest U.S. and the guidance
collectively supports this remaining in place through the short
range period. Elsewhere, the global models support some weak
troughing attempting to drop south down into the Pacific Northwest
by the end of the period, but there is good agreement among the
models with this feature. Given the good large scale agreement
among the models across the CONUS, a general model blend will be
preferred.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison