Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Valid Jul 25/0000 UTC thru Jul 28/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Preferences With Confidence Intervals
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Central Plains Saturday Morning
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The 00z ECMWF uses convective feedback to drag a surface low
eastward into central KS in a manner not seen in the other
guidance on Saturday morning.  A compromise of the 00z UKMET, 00z
Canadian, 00z GFS, and 00z NAM is preferred with above average
confidence.


Remainder of the Lower 48
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Otherwise, the guidance shows very good agreement in and near the
Lower 48 with their 500 hPa, 700 hPa, and surface patterns through
84 hours or Saturday morning.  A compromise of the 00z NAM, 00z
GFS, 00z UKMET, 12z Canadian, and 12z ECMWF is preferred with
above average confidence.

For preferences within areas which are expected to received heavy
rainfall, consult WPC excessive rainfall discussions.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Roth