Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 AM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Valid Jul 26/0000 UTC thru Jul 29/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...with preferences and confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

The model mass field agreement is good on the synoptic scale, as
the guidance agrees in reloading height falls/troughing across the
Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast through the period.
Meanwhile, the strong subtropical ridge across the Southwest is
expected to weaken some over the next few days, but will remain
centered over this part of the CONUS. Given the good agreement and
clustering seen among the guidance, a general model blend will be
preferred for the mass fields.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison