Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 AM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Valid Jul 26/0000 UTC thru Jul 29/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...with preferences and confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

In general, the model mass field agreement is good on the synoptic
scale, as the guidance agrees in reloading height falls/troughing
across the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast
through the period. However, the 00Z CMC and 00Z UKMET are both a
little faster than the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF with the secondary
troughing/energy that arrives across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley by the end of the period. The 00Z NAM conversely is a bit
slower and deeper with this reloading trough. Elsewhere, the
strong subtropical ridge across the Southwest is expected to
weaken some over the next few days, but will remain centered over
this part of the CONUS. Based on the latest model trends and
spread, a blend of the GFS and ECMWF will be preferred across the
CONUS for the mass fields.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison