Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1244 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Valid Jul 26/1200 UTC thru Jul 30/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z NAM/GFS evaluation...with preliminary preferences
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

The upper pattern across the CONUS for the next 3 days will
feature general troughing over the eastern 2/3 of the nation with
a nearly stationary ridge centered over the Southwest. A cold
front will progress through the Great Lakes into the East, while
the tail end remains quasi-stationary across the southern Plains.
Disturbances in northwest flow aloft on the north side of the
ridge will advance into the central Plains and support convective
complexes each day.

The greatest differences are over the Plains with the 00Z
UKMET/CMC a bit farther north with the frontal boundary and the
12Z NAM beginning to stray from the consensus aloft late Saturday
with lower mid-level heights across the Plains compared to the
remaining consensus. So while mass field differences are not very
large, a 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF blend is preferred as a
middle-of-the-road approach with the best ensemble support

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto