Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1257 AM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Valid Jul 28/0000 UTC thru Jul 31/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z initial model evaluation...with preferences and confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General blend except for central US (00z GFS/12z ECWMF)
Confidence: Average to slightly above average

Guidance continues to be fairly consistent with the forecast
through the weekend and with good overall agreement on the
synoptic scale pattern.  The upper low over Southeast Canada will
lift towards the northeast with a remaining broad positive tilt
trof, and southwesterly flow back toward the amplifying longer,
broader wave across the lower Missouri River valley into the
Ozarks by late Monday.  Numerous northwesterly flow shortwaves,
and upscale MCS vortmaxes will slide through this weakness from
the Central Rockies through Kansas and Arkansas, aiding to this
longer term trof.  Given the influence of upscale growth of these
MCS centers there is moderate spread on the mesoscale level owing
to uncertainty in precise timing/focus along the lingering NW to
SE frontal boundary.  

Taking all of this into consideration, we will favor a blend of
the 00z GFS and 12z ECMWF to account for the central US, but a
general model blend will work out well elsewhere.   Confidence is
average for the central US given the variance related to
convective upscale development. 

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

D. Hamrick