Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Valid Jul 29/0000 UTC thru Aug 1/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS evaluation...with preliminary preferences
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly above average

Models and ensemble means continue to indicate good overall
synoptic scale agreement over the continental U.S. through early
Tuesday with an upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest
Coast, a strong upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and
Great Basin, and perhaps most importantly an evolving trough and
potential closed low over the Midwest states.  The main
differences up through this time involve smaller scale
perturbations in the flow that will likely result in some MCS
development.

By the end of the forecast period Wednesday morning, the 00Z UKMET
is slightly to the west of the model consensus with the midwestern
trough and has a closed 500mb low.  The CMC becomes slightly more
amplified and is also slightly weaker with the western Atlantic
upper ridge.  The 00Z GFS is slightly quicker with the trough
crossing the Great Lakes by Tuesday night but still close to the
consensus.  A compromise of the GFS and 12Z ECMWF should suffice
for most areas.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

D. Hamrick