Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
114 PM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Valid Jul 29/1200 UTC thru Aug 02/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Final model evaluation...with preliminary preferences
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly above average

Deterministic and ensemble models continue to indicate good
overall synoptic scale agreement over the continental U.S. through
Wednesday with an upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest
Coast, a strong upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and
Great Basin, and perhaps most importantly, an evolving trough and
potential closed low over the Midwest states.  The main
differences up through this time involve smaller scale
perturbations moving around and north of the western U.S. ridge
likely resulting in some MCS development downstream.

Across the central and eastern U.S., the best model agreement
along with trends supported a 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF blend with the 12Z
NAM faster/weaker with the core of the upper trough over the
Midwest/Upper Midwest, whereas the 00Z UKMET/CMC were either
slower and/or deeper with the trough. Across the Pacific
Northwest, there was good support for a non 00Z UKMET blend with
the UKMET faster with the progression of an upper trough by
Wednesday. Elsewhere, a general model blend is preferred.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto