Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1257 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Valid Jul 30/0000 UTC thru Aug 02/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...with preliminary preferences
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly above average

19Z update:

The 12Z UKMET adjusted enough from its 00Z cycle to be used as
part of a blend along and east of the Mississippi River, but
remains a bit faster across the Pacific Northwest. The 12Z CMC
still looks different with its evolution across the Midwest with a
more strongly defined surface low. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF only
made minor changes from its previous run across the CONUS.

Previous discussion below:

Deterministic and ensemble models continue to indicate good
overall synoptic scale agreement over the continental U.S. through
Wednesday night with an upper level trough off the Pacific
Northwest Coast, a strong upper level ridge over the Desert
Southwest and Great Basin, and an amplifying trough and likely
closed low over the Midwest states. The main differences through
this time involve smaller scale perturbations moving around and
north of the western U.S. ridge resulting in continued MCS
development downstream through today.

Across the central and eastern U.S., the best model agreement
along with trends supported a 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF blend with the 00Z
NAM and 12Z CMC stronger with the core of the upper trough over
the Midwest, whereas the 00Z UKMET is weaker with the trough.
Elsewhere, a general model blend is preferred.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson