Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1208 PM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Valid Jul 30/1200 UTC thru Aug 03/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z model evaluation and preliminary preferences
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: 12Z GFS

A mean trough remains to the east of the Rockies, sandwiched
between Four-Corners ridging and western Atlantic ridging. A
briefly closed low over the lower Missouri Valley will lift as the
next northern stream wave drops into the trough, and a separate
upstream shortwave trough becomes better defined over the Pac NW,
Northern Rockies over time. Overall the models are fairly well
clustered. If choosing one way to lean, it would be toward the
GFS/GEFS which have shown good run to run consistency. The depth
and progression of the trough in the east, in particular, favors
the GEFS, as the ECMWF Ensemble Mean has been trending toward the
GEFS for several cycles. As spread increases on Day 3, the least
favorable solutions appear to be the 12Z NAM and 00Z UKMET, both
of which are fast in some respects.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Burke