Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Valid Jul 31/0000 UTC thru Aug 03/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

Final 00Z model evaluation and preferences
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General Model Blend
Confidence: Above Average

A trough digging over the Mississippi Valley briefly closes in the
mid levels over Illinois Tuesday then remains in place through
midweek. This trough is sandwiched between stalled ridges over the
Four Corners and the western Atlantic (a Bermuda High). A low off
the Pacific Northwest opens today with the trough persisting in
place through Wednesday. Excellent agreement in QPF is also noted
among the global guidance in this blocked pattern. There are minor
differences noted in shortwave energy flowing through the pattern
such as those crossing the Great Lakes Wednesday night. The 00Z
ECMWF has a slightly faster solution with shortwave activity over
the Great Lakes as is now in even better agreement with the 00Z
GFS.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson