Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
123 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Valid Jul 31/1200 UTC thru Aug 04/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preliminary Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-CMC Blend
Confidence: Above Average

Models are in excellent agreement overall with the synoptic
pattern, as model deterministic model fields are contained well
within ensemble spread. This increases confidence in the large
scale placement of QPF during the short term period. Typical
uncertainty will exist with convective precipitation, as
convective processes can dominate the forcing in the present of a
weaker synoptic pattern. The model that did show greater
differences was the 00Z CMC, which had a different structure to
the trough building into the Northwest, and had lower heights
through much of the region. That was excluded from the preference
in this case.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers