Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Valid Aug 01/0000 UTC thru Aug 04/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

Final 00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General Model Blend
Confidence: Above Average

00Z Models are in excellent agreement overall with the synoptic
pattern of a trough over the Pacific NW, a Desert SW ridge, a
trough over the Mississippi Valley, and ridge over the western
Atlantic through Thursday. Confidence is high in the large scale
placement of QPF through Day 2. The blocked pattern begins to
break down on Day 3 as the trough and ridge out west flatten into
a zonal flow. The 00Z NAM becomes less favorable on Friday/Day 3
with a stronger overall pattern than consensus, but overall
differences are minimal.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson