Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
113 PM EDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Valid Aug 01/1200 UTC thru Aug 05/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preliminary Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General Model Blend
Confidence: Above Average

Models continue to be in excellent agreement overall with the
synoptic pattern, and even some of the mesoscale details. The
deterministic model forecasts are generally well within the
ensemble spread, and this leads to higher confidence. A general
blend is preferred to account for the small variations in QPF
depicted by the models, some of that due to typical uncertainty
related to highly convective rainfall. WPC QPF was weighted closer
to the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers