Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 AM EDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Valid Aug 05/0000 UTC thru Aug 08/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

The synoptic mass fields in the short term show very small
scale/convective scale differences but the placement/timing of the
frontal zone across the central US looks reasonable to support a
general model blend across this region.   There is some small, by
typical timing differences with the closed low developing east of
the Delmarva toward late Tues/early Wed...with the GFS/GEFS and
NAM lifting out faster, but like the Central US, a general model
blend seems most appropriate given the overall ensemble
suite/trends.  Confidence is slightly above average across the
nation.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Gallina