Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1225 PM EDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Valid Aug 05/1200 UTC thru Aug 09/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Forecast Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Model agreement is fairly good over the next several days across
the CONUS, both among the deterministic models and the full
complement of ensemble members. At 500mb, the ECMWF Ensemble
normalized standard deviation is near or below the average for the
past 30 days, indicating generally better agreement on the overall
synoptic pattern. The source of greatest disagreement appears to
be with the timing of the front moving through the Midwest, which
will have implications on the rainfall forecast. Deterministic
models do show small differences, but are generally in good
agreement, with the exception of the 00Z UKMET which is noticeably
slower. Therefore, the preference is for a non-UKMET blend at this
point.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers