Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1213 AM EDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Valid Aug 06/0000 UTC thru Aug 09/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-CMC blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Model agreement continues to be quite strong across the CONUS, the
only significant departure appears to be related to a stronger
cold push/associated jet streak across N Ontario Wed into Thursday
with the CMC which uncharacteristically, sets the central stream
elongated/positive tilt trof pressing faster across the Northeast
into southeast Canada, and in turn, strengthens a surface wave
across PA/NY into the northeast.  Given this is out of character
for the CMC and the otherwise solid timing/placement and
orientation of the frontal zone across the Great Lakes into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast a Non-CMC blend is supported here.  The 00z
NAM and GFS both trended toward the 12z UKMET/ECMWF shifting
southeastward with the upper low across James Bay...but not
generally significant differences noted elsewhere in the CONUS as
such, other locales can likely afford a general model blend.  
Confidence is slightly above average in the forecast period.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Gallina