Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 AM EDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Valid Aug 06/0000 UTC thru Aug 09/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-CMC blend
Confidence: Above average

07z update: The 00z ECMWF/UKMET show solid continuity with prior
run/preferences.  While the 00z CMC resolved some of the timing
issues, slowing down to the mean solution crossing the Great Lakes
Wed into the Northeast by Thursday; it remains quite amplified
compared to the remaining guidance, including the next most
amplified (00z ECMWF), but this is not supported in the otherwise
solid model agreement. 

Elsewhere the CMC appears viable to blend.  Confidence in a
non-CMC blend is quite strong now, and is considered above average
across the CONUS.


---Prior Discussion---
Model agreement continues to be quite strong across the CONUS, the
only significant departure appears to be related to a stronger
cold push/associated jet streak across N Ontario Wed into Thursday
with the CMC which uncharacteristically, sets the central stream
elongated/positive tilt trof pressing faster across the Northeast
into southeast Canada, and in turn, strengthens a surface wave
across PA/NY into the northeast.  Given this is out of character
for the CMC and the otherwise solid timing/placement and
orientation of the frontal zone across the Great Lakes into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast a Non-CMC blend is supported here.  The 00z
NAM and GFS both trended toward the 12z UKMET/ECMWF shifting
southeastward with the upper low across James Bay...but not
generally significant differences noted elsewhere in the CONUS as
such, other locales can likely afford a general model blend.  
Confidence is slightly above average in the forecast period.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Gallina