Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1212 PM EDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Valid Aug 06/1200 UTC thru Aug 10/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Forecast Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: blend of 00z ECMWF, UKMET, and 06z GFS parallel
(Non-NAM blend)
Confidence: Slightly above average

The models agree that the deep layer trough moves slowly across
the Great Lakes and northeast the next couple of days. The 12z NAM
is a bit faster and more amplified than the other models at
700-500 mb with a stronger sfc wave developing just off the New
England coast Thu as a result. The 06z GFS parallel was slower tha
the operational 12z run with the progression of the 700 mb wave
across the northeast and closer to the timing of the ECMWF and
UKMET.

The 00z Canadian had a more amplified wave across the Great Lakes
on Tue night-early Wed., so should be given less weight as well.
Also, the Canadian closed off a 700 mb low in AR  on Thu, with
other solutions maintaining an open wave. 

Confidence is slightly above average in the forecast period, given
the higher amplitude, slowly moving  ridge out across the Great
Basin/northern Rockies and the ridge drifting from the southeast
to Florida.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Petersen