Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 PM EDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Valid Aug 07/1200 UTC thru Aug 11/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z NAM/GFS Model Evaluation and Preliminary Preferences and
Forecast Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: 12Z GFS and 00Z UKMET
Confidence: Slightly above average

Overall decent agreement on operational runs and ensemble means
through Day 3 with focus on heavy precipitation developing over
the southern CONUS through the middle of this week. The 12Z NAM is
more amplified/faster with the trough drifting east across the
Great Lakes/amplifying to the southern Great Plains. The 00Z
ECMWF/ECENS are in line with the 12Z NAM at times in terms of
amplification which was the preference in the previous discussion.
However, the precipitation from the NAM/ECM are farther east than
the 12Z GFS/00Z UKMET over the southern plains. Will need to
monitor this and will see with once the rest of the 12Z suite
comes in.

The 00Z CMC is the least amplified of the operational suite for
most of Days 2/3, so the preference goes to the GFS/UKMET at this
time.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson