Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Valid Aug 07/1200 UTC thru Aug 11/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation and Preferences with Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-UKMET Blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Overall decent agreement on operational runs and ensemble means
through Day 3 with focus on heavy precipitation developing over
the southern CONUS through the middle of this week. In general 12Z
guidance is more amplified/slower with the trough stretching from
the Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains. The greater
amplified solution warrants a preference to include the ECMWF/NAM
(like they were last night), the 12Z CMC (which is more amplified
than the 00Z) in addition to the GFS. The UKMET remained less
amplified at 12Z, so it was removed from the preference.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson