Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Valid Aug 10/0000 UTC thru Aug 13/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation with final preferences
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: non 00Z CMC blend
Confidence: Average

Trends since Thursday in the models have been toward convergence,
but some differences remain, namely with a closed low over the
Ohio Valley by Sunday morning into Monday. The 12Z ECMWF is
displaced a bit to the west along with its ensemble members but
the 00Z ECMWF nudged a bit faster toward the remaining model
consensus. Meanwhile, the 00Z GFS/CMC are quicker to the east.
While a blend of the deterministic models is near the position of
the 00Z NAM/ECMWF, the differences are small enough where a
general model blend brings about the favored middle ground.

Elsewhere, some minor differences with the position of a closed
low over the southern High Plains show up by Monday morning, but
the 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC have shown convergence with the 00Z
NAM/GFS. The overall differences are not very large and a general
model blend is preferred here.

The biggest difference across the CONUS is due to a shortwave
tracking across southwestern Canada over the weekend with the
12Z/00Z CMC slower/weaker with the mid-level shortwave. Good
ensemble agreement exists for a non-CMC blend across the
northwestern tier of the U.S.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto