Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Valid Aug 13/0000 UTC thru Aug 16/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation with final preferences
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of 00Z GFS/ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly below average

As the pattern of the ridge over the Upper Midwest and trough over
the Northeast begins to break down, the models are continuing to
struggle with the timing of a variety of waves in the northern
tier of states, beginning on Wednesday. The biggest of these
differences relates to a shortwave over Montana on Tuesday, and
how much influence it has to a departing positively tilted trough
over south-central Canada. The NAM/GFS have had more of a
connection to Canada which translates into a more progressive
shortwave reaching the upper Midwest by Thursday morning, while
the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC are slower. Ensemble spread remains large with
a blend toward the middle preferred at this time. This is closest
to a 00Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF blend. Elsewhere, the models are in
relatively good agreement with a general blend preferred to smooth
out differences.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto-